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Sometimes a Bargain Depends on the Volume
Linda Goin
  
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On the day after Thanksgiving in 2007, a friend of mine and I stayed up all night and then headed to a department store at 3:00 am to take advantage of Black Friday sales. Black Friday is the Friday after Thanksgiving in the U.S., and it marks the beginning of the traditional holiday shopping season. Thanksgiving weekend may mark a long weekend for many employees, so merchants take advantage of this off-work day to move merchandise. The hopes of many merchants are that these sales will mark their account books upward to be “in the black.”

This year, more than ever, retailers were hoping that Black Friday sales would help their books in a sour economy. Sales began even before Thanksgiving in some cases, as competitors vied for limited customer dollars. Although my friend and I swore off Black Friday sales after our experience in 2007, we had to purchase a new computer for my daughter. So we waited until Black Friday, and – with my daughter in tow (who had never experienced a Black Friday) – we set off at 4:00 am to find a laptop. That was a mistake.

The store we visited had advertised laptops online, and that ad said some laptops were offered in store locations. The laptops weren't in the store that we visited, however, and the experience of shuffling through body-to-body bargain hunters was more than we could handle. We shuffled in, we shuffled out. Then, we went online and found the perfect laptop through an “online only” Black Friday sale. We saved $300.00, the laptop was just what she needed, and we saved ourselves headaches from mingling with crowds.

That short Black Friday experience was all my daughter needed to know that she didn't want to do another one – at least not physically. She understood that shopping online on Black Friday or on Cyber Monday (the equivalent of Black Friday, only online) might be the way to go from here on out. Thankfully, retailers understand this mentality, as they offered some outstanding bargains online for shoppers who didn't want to venture out into the merchandising madness.

The following day, we decided to brave the crowds once more since the weather was so nice. But, we were shocked after the contrast from the previous morning, as we encountered few cars on the road. We turned left at red lights, we found parking spaces near store entrances, and we were the only people in line at some cash registers. The few customers who joined us that morning seemed as delighted as we were. The retailers, on the other hand, seemed concerned.

I talked with a few retailers as we shopped, and they admitted that all their sales were much lower than predicted. The prediction, by the way, was low in the first place. Many retailers stated that they will mark items down even more as they try to move seasonal merchandise out the door. That's just one side of the story...

In other stores, people spent three percent more than they did during last year's Black Friday sales. Associated Press writer Ashley M. Heher reported that sales on the day after Thanksgiving rose to $10.6 billion, according to preliminary figures released Saturday by ShopperTrak RCT Corp., a Chicago-based research firm that tracks sales at more than 50,000 retail outlets. Despite this good news for some retailers, a one-day barometer for measuring seasonal retail sales isn't practical. There's a full month's worth of holiday sales and post-holiday sales before investors can know how retailers fared during the 2008 holiday season.

But, the stores we visited on Saturday didn't carry the volume that some larger stores did that day. One small retailer was so grateful for our business that she provided us with free hand-blown glass tree ornaments. Other retailers offered coupons on top of their already low prices, especially for merchandise like winter clothing, toys and other seasonal items. Retailers were in a bargaining mood.

It was this mood and the uptick in the markets on Black Friday that made me think about some stocks that have taken a dive lately. I'm not talking bank stocks in particular, either – it seems that every stock on the market is on sale. But, is it a good time to buy?

Well, let's see – if a company offers stock that sold a few months ago for $70 per share, then that same stock currently is offered at $15 per share, what would you do if you had some liquidity? Would you pass it up? Would you wonder if that stock might go down even further? Or, would you stock up on some great values for your portfolio?

I didn't buy everything I wanted on Black Friday or on the following Saturday this year at retail stores. Instead, I purchased some much-needed items, but I stopped short when it came to items that served as “toys” rather than as necessities. I have a gut feeling I may save a few more dollars on those former items if I practice patience.

Same with the portfolio. I needed to balance my portfolio, so I purchased some stock in sectors where I was lacking. But, then I stopped. I'm waiting patiently to see if other items I'd like to have might fall a bit more before I buy (and, they did fall more on Cyber Monday). Maybe those stocks have all hit bottom already. Who knows? Timing the market isn't the wisest move. But, purchasing good value stocks on sale is a great idea anytime – especially when the volume picks up on those stocks to carry that stock upward.

So, this is my advice for the holidays – look for volume to pick up on your favored stocks and bravely jump in for savings. On the other hand, search for brick-and-mortar stores with low volume and park the car...those retailers could make your shopping very worthwhile as you help them move merchandise. Between the stocks and overstocked merchandise, you might make out just fine this holiday season.

Until Later,

Linda Goin

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