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If you
read the previous Mom Chronicles article, you might understand
how the Simple Moving Average (SMA) can help you to identify
trends. But you may wonder how these trends are plotted. Additionally,
if you plan to hold on to your securities for a year or more,
why bother with learning about moving averages?
First,
a brief recap: You learned last week that you can take the
open, middle, or closing price to determine your SMA, and
that you can use a daily, weekly, or even monthly figure to
calculate a moving average (MA). Additionally, when you use
the Yahoo! portfolios, you also have a choice between a 50-
and 200-day MA. What you use to determine your MA is up to
you, but remember that the shorter MA time frame will be more
sensitive to changes and will, therefore, display more indicators.
When you
added the moving average to your portfolio, you only see numbers;
so, it's a little difficult to see how a MA lags behind a
chart's jagged lines or how the moving average lines might
indicate a trend. You might take a short trip to StockCharts.com
so that you can visualize how the 50- and 200-day moving averages
differ and how they look when they're applied to a chart.
If you
look at the very first image on that StockCharts.com page,
you'll see the differences between the 50- and 200-day MAs.
The former, shorter time frame follows the chart's price line
closely, whereas the 200-day MA lies further away from the
chart's price line and it's smoother than the 50-day MA line.
To explain
the difference between the two time frames is like explaining
the difference between a day trader and a long-term investor.
The day trader wants the MA to closely follow the price line,
as they want more indicators to help make short-term technical
decisions. The 200-day MA, however, is a little more laid
back and relaxed, just like a long-term investor might act!
Since
StockCharts.com does a great job on its explanations for moving
averages, I'll just take you to your Yahoo! portfolio so that
you can practice what StockCharts.com preaches. I'll help
you focus on how to spot trend identification/confirmation
and resistance and support movements through the new Yahoo!
Beta charts.
Say that
you're ready to accumulate more stock in a dollar-cost averaging
strategy, but you maintain control over the day and time that
you want to purchase that stock. You can chart a MA trend
for any given security to help determine a point where you
would be able to purchase that stock at the lowest possible
price for a given month, week, day, or hour. And, if, after
a period of time, you're ready to exit that stock, you can
use the MA to determine a time when you'd like to sell that
stock at a higher price.
Your Yahoo!
portfolio charts provide tools that can help you to plot trends.
Go to your Yahoo! portfolio and choose a stock in that portfolio.
Click on that stock's ticker symbol, and you'll arrive at
the page that contains a chart for that stock. Click on that
chart to enlarge it, and then click on the Yahoo! Beta promotion
located above that chart. A new chart will appear that allows
you to play around with technical indicators.
Click
on the "technical indicators" tab at the top of that chart
and then click on the SMA indicator located at the top of
the drop down menu. A box will appear that shows a 50-day
MA choice. In the empty box below that "50" type in "200."
Click "Draw" and two MA lines will appear on that chart (green
for the 50-day and orange for the 200-day). You can click
on the time frame for that chart at bottom right, and those
MA lines will change according to the time frames that you
choose (from one day to "max").
Click
around on the time frames for that stock chart until you find
a period where the 50- and 200-day lines cross over each other
(you may have a stock where this won't happen ever - it's
possible - so pick another stock where you can see the crossover).
Most charts will show a price line crossed by a MA line.
A crossover
is a popular trading signal that occurs when the price of
that stock crosses through a MA, or two MAs cross over each
other. This type of signal is regarded as an early indication
of the direction of future momentum. For instance, if you've
been watching a stock for a long-term position, you might
enter this purchase when the price crosses above a MA; you
might exit that security when the price crosses below the
MA.
On the
other hand, if the green line (50-day) crosses above the 200-day
line (orange), you might see that your stock rose in price
after the crossover. This upward momentum increases when a
short-term average crosses above a long-term average. On the
exit side, many traders might choose to sell once the price
of an asset falls below major moving averages, because it
suggests that a downward momentum is likely to occur.
These
points often are illustrated by lines that either resist or
support a chart's movement, as you can see in the last chart
illustration offered on the StockCharts.com page for moving
averages. A supporting line does just that - the MA line appears
to support the chart's price movement either upward or downward.
Resistance is indicated when the MA crosses above the chart's
price line and appears to keep that price line from moving
upward above that MA line.
On the
average (no pun intended) - these indicators do work. But,
aberrations do occur, so use the MA(s) only as one indicator
among many that you might use before you commit to an investment
decision. I'll introduce you to some more technical indicators
over the upcoming weeks so that you can take full advantage
of your Yahoo! Beta charts.
In the
meantime, have fun with the MA lines on that Beta chart. The
more you practice, the more comfortable you'll become with
this technical indicator.
Until
Next Week, Linda Goin
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