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When you
invest in products and services that you understand and that
you know about inside and out, you might feel more confident
about your portfolio. But these products and services change
over time. And while your portfolio needs to reflect these
changes, how can you keep up with news that seems to happen
when you blink your eyes?
You could
stop blinking, but I wouldn't advise that solution. And, you
could become a news junkie, sniffing out every bit of fact
and fiction about your investments. But, I wouldn't ask you
to do this, either. You'll probably stop sleeping, let alone
blinking. Instead, my suggestion is to soak in your investment
research on a long-term basis, a method that's very similar
to holding long-term investments.
This practice
takes time, and that's the point. When I avoid investing in
a company until I learn more about it and its sector, I develop
patience and I avoid impulsive behaviors. It all goes back
to my father's admonition about anything: "Watch it." When
this advice is applied to my propensity for impulsiveness,
a safe period of time for investment research equals about
six months.
Six months
represents enough time to learn more about a business and
a sector, because it covers at least two quarterly report
periods and at least two periods to account for seasonal changes
in consumer interest. During that time I can also soak in
rumors and disparaging news and learn which items are relevant
or not. When those 'bad news' blurbs are released, I can also
watch how they affect a specific stock or sector through increases
or decreases volume and through increased sales or purchases.
This knowledge will help me ride out storms that affect stock
performance after I invest.
This practice
can help you weather takeovers and purchases as well. For
instance, my daughter and I are absorbed in graphic design,
an industry that seems small-time in the overall scheme of
investments. But, we discovered a small film industry that
displayed extreme talent in animated film production a few
years ago after we watched a movie that this company produced.
Since we already had a background in graphics, we knew quality
when we saw it. This, however, was just the first step in
our decision to invest in their business.
We began
to research this company's competitors, and we compared their
profits, losses, and plans for expansion against its opposition.
Although this was a very small business, it was public; and
we felt very confident about their ability to make a mark
on the animated film industry. Additionally, because I write
about investments I also knew that buy-outs were hot at that
time, so we looked hard at the larger entertainment companies
and the sector as a whole before we put any backing behind
that little company.
We learned
this: That small company planned to output two more films
over the upcoming two years. Both releases were highly publicized
and well favored among a newly burgeoning fan base. Past performance
showed record numbers in sales to see the movies, and the
by-products that portrayed characters from these films were
selling well, also. After about five months we invested in
the stock, keeping in mind that within two years a major interest
in purchasing that company might occur.
About
six months after our initial investment, the stock dropped
on news that the company might be purchased. Instead of selling,
we held on after we read a few film magazines that carried
facts that belied this rumor. It seemed that the company was
going to go forward with their promised productions, so we
held tight. After the announcement of their second film release
one year later, however, this company also announced the upcoming
sale of their business to a major entertainment firm.
The stock
soared, because the timing of the sale to a well-known entertainment
conglomerate combined with the successful release of a new
film seemed to fire up investors. At that point, we sold our
shares based on two bits of knowledge that we obtained during
our research. First, we didn't like the company that purchased
the smaller firm. Secondly, we also knew that the DVD industry
was building and that theatre ticket sales were declining
at the time. Both factors led us to cash in when the stock
was climbing.
Although
an investment that lasted only one and one-half-years might
not seem long-term, when you add that five months' worth of
research to that timeframe, the total investment time equals
two years - long enough to feel confident about a purchase
or a sale. Because we invested in a product that we understood,
we quickly learned during our research time how what we knew
could be modified by other events. Therefore, we anticipated
those events and we acted on them with confidence.
How did
we do? We made a 30% profit on our initial investment, we
avoided brokerage fees by hanging tight when the rumors flew
the first time, and we managed to avoid a huge drop in the
purchaser's stock that occurred almost immediately after they
acquired the smaller company. That stock is just now meeting
its previous price almost two years later. In that time, my
daughter and I have conducted more research and have made
profitable investments in cleaning products.
Yes, that's
another product that we know something about, despite rumors
to the contrary.
Until
Next Week,
Linda Goin
The securities
markets are subject to the risks of fluctuating prices and
the uncertainty of rates of return and yields inherent in
investing and past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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