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Investors
have suffered through enough corporate mismanagement over
the past five years to bring on an ulcer; especially if those
investors believe that corporate bungling affects stock prices.
Mergers, acquisitions, and super-spy antics add to the impression
that blue-chips, high-end tech stocks, and super mega-store
shares might be riskier to own than a portion of a little-known
mini-business located in Australia's bush country. Add a few
other bad news scenarios like downgrades or rumors, and you
might wonder if investing is even worth the trouble.
But, every
black cloud has a silver lining (so my grandmother said),
and that lining might be called a contrarian, or a person
who thrills to find the positive in the negative. An opportunity
to pick up solid corporate shares that have suffered a price
cut through bad news might resonate with you. But, how do
you know whether the stock is truly dangerous or if it's in
shape for a future upgrade?
First
and foremost, I would never advocate reacting to any bad news
with share purchases or sales based on emotion. If you own
shares in a company that reveals bad news, you might sit tight
until you hear what that "bad news" is about and what it means
to that company's future. Just remember the adage, "buy low,
sell high," to keep your wits about you, because if those
shares are dropping, it may not be the time to sell. But,
it could be the time to purchase more shares if you know that
company inside out and if you know that the bad news can be
weathered?
Say, for
instance, that you know about a company that has expanded,
reduced debt, increased production and profits within the
past few years, but you also know that the stock price has
dropped despite this growth. In this case, some analysts might
have questioned whether this mega-corporation could continue
to expand, as its growth may begin to reflect the rate of
the general economy. When analysts start to downgrade stocks
despite growth potential (potential that sometimes includes
larger dividends), then it's time to stop listening to analysts
in my opinion. All the analysts have done in this instance
is to change the company's valuation. This is not bad news.
The company is solid, the price is low, and it might be time
to buy.
I do avoid
one "bad news" scenario when I consider a purchase, and that
news usually contains something about "accounting troubles"
and "bookkeeping mismanagement." There is a difference, though,
between minor and major bookkeeping bungling. Think Enron
or WorldCom and you have an idea about what I mean by major
trifling. When one board member or employee is caught stealing
from a large corporation, that's another matter altogether.
That latter problem is a wound that can heal if that company
is strong and if it reacts positively to the news.
One positive
reaction that a company can make includes share repurchases
or buybacks during a company crisis, as this action provides
one means for a company to patch its image and to increase
its share price at the same time. When a company repurchases
its stock at a lower price it increases the value of the remaining
shares on the market because fewer shares mean more valuable
shares. This action also provides investors with a source
of long-term profit, and it provides some proof that the company
is willing to restructure its image as a valued commodity.
This might be one instance where a stake in that company is
worth the risk.
On the
other hand, if you notice a buyback or any major stock purchase
that a company makes during a bull run or when the share price
seems overpriced, you might wonder where that company is headed.
That money would have been better spent on assets that can
be easily converted back into cash rather than spent on overblown
shares. If you look deeper into a company that makes a decision
like this you might find other problems as well.
In a case
where you find a company that doesn't seem worth your time
or money, you might consider a change of heart if you hear
that company has changed management. Good management could
make the difference between mediocre stock performance and
a prize investment. Since you already know the company, all
you need to do in this instance is to research the new management.
You can do this online by typing the person's name into a
search engine. If nothing comes up, then I would be suspicious.
Good managers usually strive for an online presence that showcases
their achievements, whether it's through press releases, media
coverage, or simply through a personal Website.
What you
use to valuate management is up to you. I tend to be harsh
with my qualifications. In the end, however, a CEO who values
high returns over a high-end Manhattan office is my cup of
tea. High returns usually means that a profit will be realized,
and profits often are shared with stockholders.
In the
end, bad news isn't always bad. Bad news can readjust a stock
price so that it's more affordable, more appealing, and possibly
more profitable - and that's all good news if the company
is based on solid growth and financials. The danger lies within
a lack of research. And, I need to ask, just how easy is it
to research that little business in Australia compared to
a mega-business located right here in the U.S.?
Until
Next Week,
Linda Goin
BUYandHOLD
does not offer or provide any investment advice or opinion
regarding the nature, potential, value, suitability or profitability
of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction
or investment strategy. Any investment decisions you make
will be based solely on your evaluation of your financial
circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and
liquidity needs. The securities mentioned above are being
used for illustrative purposes only and should not be regarded
as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy
and past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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