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The Sector Series: Entertain Me
Linda Goin
 
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Hard times are subjective, like some non-durable goods. A loss of income and a falling dollar on top of war worries and flat portfolios can be depressing. Do we stay depressed and worried, or do we have outlets to keep our spirits up? If we don't have discretionary income, how do we entertain ourselves? If money weren't an issue, then what sort of entertainment would we choose? Is it food or fun parks? Movies or murder novels? Do we jump into a bubble bath or hop on a plane?

The answers to these questions might help us choose current equities for the recreation/leisure sector of our portfolios. If we take a look at the top ten holdings in leisure/recreation stocks at BUYandHOLD, we have a starting point for our research. There are other clues to help us decide how to invest in this sector. Let's see how some of these play out:

  1. Leisure Travel - if we have jobs and children, travel is a summer thing. If we're single and without a care in the world, travel still isn't usually a yearlong venture (unless we're planning a vision quest in Tibet). This makes leisure travel a seasonal investment, and one that depends on discretionary income/budget. There are inexpensive ways to travel, but they all involve products listed in the transportation sector. If we take a look first at airline, automobile, passenger train and cruise line incomes and market volume, we might have an idea how leisure travel will fare this year. Oh - don't forget worries about current and near-future prices of gas and oil.

  2. Recreation Equipment - On the other hand, if we feel we need to leave the real world behind, we'll find a way. One example is camping at a nearby park. Do we see a surge in tent sales? Are sleeping bags doing well? These are non-durable goods, but they also fall under the "recreation" category. Other recreation equipment would incorporate sports equipment. If we think ice climbing, remember this is a seasonal sport. If we think ice-skating, that's an altogether different piece of ice. Sports with the flexibility to be played indoors and outdoors are not as dependent on seasonal sales.

  3. Theme Parks - Once again, we have to get there. They don't come to us, unless it's through the tube in our televisions or computers.

  4. Television vs. Movies - This is a tough call. If we count on a majority vote to see a movie when it first comes out, great. If we count on limited budgets, television might win. At last count, two tickets, two popcorns, and two soft drinks cost as much as a pair of girl's jeans. Toss that coin, and see what we come up with. My daughter has a philosophy: if it's on the big screen during Christmas, it will be on video by summer. We can wait to rent a video, make our own popcorn, and save a bundle (although we did make an exception to watch a certain blonde elfin bowman on the big screen this past holiday?). Another clue to people cutting back on entertainment funds is the upswing in high market ratings for cable. Are people planning to stay home for their entertainment? Hmmm?how are DVD, video, and TIVO sales doing? Branch out a bit and add stereo systems and CDs to the checklist. While we're branching out, let's add?

  5. Tech Entertainment - My daughter, once again, gives me clues to how she likes to relax. She would rather play on the computer than watch television. I've introduced her to paint programs, and she spends hours playing with pixels. If your child isn't artistic, then find something that snags their interest. Whatever it is, the computer software world will probably have it in stock. We can add other computerized games to this list, including those that incorporate the television as the gaming medium. This is an interesting avenue to check out for investments, and we'll take a look at more tech goodies in a few weeks.

  6. Food and Drink - This category defines dining for entertainment, not just for survival. This includes the popcorn at the movies, the gotta-have-it chocolate, and the glass of wine we partake every night for health reasons. Sure, that last one might be medicinal, but it sure is entertaining, isn't it? Alcohol sales - historically - don't suffer during hard times. If we don't choose to support this market, think about other feel-good foods. These are mostly what I term junk foods - food and drinks with absolutely no nutritional value. If we don't choose to support this market either, then our last choice is in the realm of the restaurant. When we think restaurants, don't think quality at the moment. During hard times, it's better to think fast and cheap. If this is another market we can't support, then it's time to move on?

  7. Toys -Toys are definitely non-durable goods, unless they're purchased specifically for collector's items or if they're adopted by the tech sector. In the first instance, just keep an eye on what your children crave. You can read more about watching your children here. This article applies to kids from age three to 103. Think about this?the recent decade-long surge in the stock market that ended about two years ago allowed many of us to live the good life. Those rich ways of life often become die-hard habits. There are ways to get around feeling rich when pocket poor - if we can't afford spas, just buy a hot tub. If we can't go after the annual trip to Aruba, just get a tanning bed. Yes, these are toys. To some they might be luxuries, but to others they're ways to relax. If you can't afford either one, watch the stock numbers on these items for entertainment.

We haven't covered every way folks choose to relax. Some ideas aren't on the market, and others are illegal. Others still are trends, something long-term investors choose to avoid. Just think of ways you choose to entertain yourself, and take a look at the companies you support with your purchases. Are any of them strong leaders in the market? If so, perhaps you might invest in more than just their products.

Myself? I'm going to go soak in bathtub full of bubbles and finish reading that book about alternative energy. I'll let you know what I find next week.

Until then,
Linda Goin


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