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This week
I celebrate my 48th birthday. I thought I was already 48,
so this particular observance is no big deal. Close friends
confirm this age confusion happens a lot around the half-century
mark. Time seems to blend into one long blur, and actual ages
aren't as important as they were a mere decade ago. Even the
wrinkles seem softer.
There
won't be any significant events during the week to mark my
beginning of existence. My daughter isn't old enough to buy
expensive presents or take me out to dinner. My friends are
mostly my age, which means their party hats shrunk many years
ago. Without a doubt, the markets won't feel the impact. The
exchanges entertain bigger fish - national holidays, power
outages, weather, and man-made disasters are preferred disruptions.
For example,
U.S. exchanges usually observe the following nine annual holidays:
- Martin
Luther King, Jr. Day: 3rd Monday in January
- Washington's
Birthday:
3rd Monday in February
- Good
Friday: April 18th in 2003
- Memorial
Day: Last Monday in May
- Independence
Day: July 4th
- Labor
Day:
First Monday in September
- Thanksgiving:
Fourth Thursday in November
- Christmas:
December 25th
- New
Year:
January 1st
The Board
of the NYSE has also determined that when any holiday observed
by the Exchange falls on a Saturday, the Exchange won't be
open for business the following Monday, unless unusual business
conditions exist, such as the ending of a monthly or yearly
accounting period.
The NYSE
also likes to close for one-minute intervals out of respect
for certain events and/or people. On July 21st, 1969, they
closed for and entire day to celebrate the National Day of
Participation for the lunar exploration. I was in ninth grade,
and I don't remember this celebration. It was obviously significant,
but I must have been wrapped in my own little observations.
There's
a pattern to historic early closings in markets on the day
after Thanksgiving. Let's have a big "duh" on that one. This
holiday falls on a Thursday. On Friday, most people are comatose
from too much turkey, repetitive football reruns, and visits
with the likes of Aunt Margaret and Uncle Bud. The accumulation
of these activities could equal a really lax Friday on the
market.
Also,
the day before Christmas deserves a half-day off, and for
some reason July 5th also gets a half-day work session.
When I
was much younger, I took advantage of the overabundance of
holidays from Halloween through to the end of the year. If
you live in Mardi Gras country - as I did for a decade - one
can extend the holidays from Halloween through to Good Friday.
Every week becomes an observance of a holiday past, present,
and future. Most alcohol and drug treatment centers in the
Gulf Coast region admit the majority of their patients the
day after Easter weekend.
Think
about this for a moment. Not only do the markets have their
annual holidays, each region and state in this country mark
their own traditional observances, too. If you want to develop
a working strategy for the market around all these happenings,
you've got your hands full. Keeping an eye on regional Gulf
Coast liquor sales to base investments in health care facilities
before Easter weekend isn't my cup of tea. But, it's a ripe
activity for many traders and investors.
Many analysts
rely on holidays for market indicators, along with other technical
tools. Short-term and long-term theories are based on patterns
developed around these celebrations. For instance, some investors
and traders don't like holding stocks during holidays. Major
news during off days may negatively affect their holdings
on the next market opening. This activity can present excellent
opportunities to go in on pre-holiday sales dips to buy equities
at attractive prices. If you want to purchase stock gifts
for a friend or relative - or even for yourself - take a look
at the days right before a holiday. You might see some heavy
sales going down in some sectors.
Speaking
of sectors, remember seasonal businesses during these time
frames. If you want to buy stock in a ski resort, don't do
it during a great powder year over Christmas. This isn't speculation.
This is common sense. If the seasonal business is doing well,
the stock price will most likely be higher than usual.
During
half days and often during the full week before or after a
given holiday, volume may dwindle or spike without warning.
Volatile activity in the market may take place the day after
a long holiday break. If you get a money gift for Christmas
and want to use it for investments, you might want to wait
a few days after New Year (depending on the day this holiday
falls) to invest. Watch the volume, as this will be the indicator
that interest is sparking and/or leveling off again in the
market.
To make
a long story short, do more than look at technical analysis
to determine the purchases and sales of your equities. Take
a look around you, and around the location of the business
that holds your interest. Heed emotion and timing, and you
may have reason to celebrate your own holiday when you see
profits from your investments.
As for
me, I'm going to take a nap after I blow out the candles on
my birthday chart.
Until
Next Week,
Linda Goin
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