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Markets Just Wanna Have Fun: Holiday Strategies
Linda Goin
 
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This week I celebrate my 48th birthday. I thought I was already 48, so this particular observance is no big deal. Close friends confirm this age confusion happens a lot around the half-century mark. Time seems to blend into one long blur, and actual ages aren't as important as they were a mere decade ago. Even the wrinkles seem softer.

There won't be any significant events during the week to mark my beginning of existence. My daughter isn't old enough to buy expensive presents or take me out to dinner. My friends are mostly my age, which means their party hats shrunk many years ago. Without a doubt, the markets won't feel the impact. The exchanges entertain bigger fish - national holidays, power outages, weather, and man-made disasters are preferred disruptions.

For example, U.S. exchanges usually observe the following nine annual holidays:

  • Martin Luther King, Jr. Day: 3rd Monday in January
  • Washington's Birthday: 3rd Monday in February
  • Good Friday: April 18th in 2003
  • Memorial Day: Last Monday in May
  • Independence Day: July 4th
  • Labor Day: First Monday in September
  • Thanksgiving: Fourth Thursday in November
  • Christmas: December 25th
  • New Year: January 1st

The Board of the NYSE has also determined that when any holiday observed by the Exchange falls on a Saturday, the Exchange won't be open for business the following Monday, unless unusual business conditions exist, such as the ending of a monthly or yearly accounting period.

The NYSE also likes to close for one-minute intervals out of respect for certain events and/or people. On July 21st, 1969, they closed for and entire day to celebrate the National Day of Participation for the lunar exploration. I was in ninth grade, and I don't remember this celebration. It was obviously significant, but I must have been wrapped in my own little observations.

There's a pattern to historic early closings in markets on the day after Thanksgiving. Let's have a big "duh" on that one. This holiday falls on a Thursday. On Friday, most people are comatose from too much turkey, repetitive football reruns, and visits with the likes of Aunt Margaret and Uncle Bud. The accumulation of these activities could equal a really lax Friday on the market.

Also, the day before Christmas deserves a half-day off, and for some reason July 5th also gets a half-day work session.

When I was much younger, I took advantage of the overabundance of holidays from Halloween through to the end of the year. If you live in Mardi Gras country - as I did for a decade - one can extend the holidays from Halloween through to Good Friday. Every week becomes an observance of a holiday past, present, and future. Most alcohol and drug treatment centers in the Gulf Coast region admit the majority of their patients the day after Easter weekend.

Think about this for a moment. Not only do the markets have their annual holidays, each region and state in this country mark their own traditional observances, too. If you want to develop a working strategy for the market around all these happenings, you've got your hands full. Keeping an eye on regional Gulf Coast liquor sales to base investments in health care facilities before Easter weekend isn't my cup of tea. But, it's a ripe activity for many traders and investors.

Many analysts rely on holidays for market indicators, along with other technical tools. Short-term and long-term theories are based on patterns developed around these celebrations. For instance, some investors and traders don't like holding stocks during holidays. Major news during off days may negatively affect their holdings on the next market opening. This activity can present excellent opportunities to go in on pre-holiday sales dips to buy equities at attractive prices. If you want to purchase stock gifts for a friend or relative - or even for yourself - take a look at the days right before a holiday. You might see some heavy sales going down in some sectors.

Speaking of sectors, remember seasonal businesses during these time frames. If you want to buy stock in a ski resort, don't do it during a great powder year over Christmas. This isn't speculation. This is common sense. If the seasonal business is doing well, the stock price will most likely be higher than usual.

During half days and often during the full week before or after a given holiday, volume may dwindle or spike without warning. Volatile activity in the market may take place the day after a long holiday break. If you get a money gift for Christmas and want to use it for investments, you might want to wait a few days after New Year (depending on the day this holiday falls) to invest. Watch the volume, as this will be the indicator that interest is sparking and/or leveling off again in the market.

To make a long story short, do more than look at technical analysis to determine the purchases and sales of your equities. Take a look around you, and around the location of the business that holds your interest. Heed emotion and timing, and you may have reason to celebrate your own holiday when you see profits from your investments.

As for me, I'm going to take a nap after I blow out the candles on my birthday chart.

Until Next Week,
Linda Goin


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