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"How would
you keep bears away, Cora?"
"I'd feed
them, so they wouldn't eat me."
Granted,
it's tough to feed bears when you can't see them. Just because
you can't see them doesn't mean they don't exist. Can you
hear them? They're stomping around in that patch of thorny
accusations, and they're just beyond that mountain of stock
slides.
If you're
like me, you have very little food to feed a bunch of investment-hungry
bears. I have other mouths to feed. But these beasts are bent
on gnawing our profits to shreds. Never fear - I figure we
can make it out of these woods alive.
All it
takes is six steps of a creative problem solving process,
and a lot of good chocolate. The six-step problem solving
process is a great way to tackle a problem. The chocolate
is a wonderful way to handle stress.
The first
step in this problem solving process is defining the problem.
I think the problem is fairly clear. At the beginning of August,
the stock market was deep into an 850-day decline. This decline
marked the longest market slide since the Second World War.
Today, blue chips are battered and each index tries to keep
sinking to new lows. The environment is rough, ladies. We
need our boots, gloves, and a first-aid kit.
The next
step is to analyze this problem. Will it get worse, or will
it get better? There's no way to tell. All we have to gauge
the future are history and statistics. That's scary. At the
moment, I'm of the opinion that history can't repeat itself
simply because the environment seems to change every day.
Statistics are supposed to be reliable, but number reporting
is often flavored by human need and greed.
The best
thing to do at this point is trust our own instincts and intellect.
If we can't feed the bears, we can at least distract them.
We need to find alternatives to our investments, so they'll
diversify, last longer and - hopefully - reproduce.
This brings
us to the third step in the creative problem solving process.
This part involves brainstorming, idea generation, and the
beginning of a pro-creative process. I'll throw some ideas
out on the table, and you can add your own to the pile:
- Re-mortgage
the house, while interest rates are low. In fact, they're
lower than they've been in over thirty-some years. Check
into prepayment plans, too. If we aren't penalized for early
payments, we might save a bundle in interest payments. By
the time we have that house paid off, perhaps the bears
will be in another stratosphere.
- Let's
try digging ourselves out of credit card debt. While our
portfolios are sitting at 0% profit margin or less, our
credit cards could be eating a 20% interest hole in our
wallets. That's no way to beat a path out of the woods.
Once our cards are paid off, we could cut them all up except
one for emergencies, and one for that gotta-have pair of
tennis shoes for the kids and that box of chocolates.
- Buy
some bonds and keep some cash in a compound-interest
savings account. If we have a few alternative interest-bearing
accounts, we'll have a much-needed rest from our attention-grabbing
scratched and bitten portfolios.
- Make
that car, fridge, stove, and any other large ticket item
last a little longer. Don't rush out to buy merchandise
that depreciates before it even leaves the store. Keep the
frivolous fritters to a minimum, and let's be creative with
what we already have. If we're going to splurge, let's get
the best. Top-of-the-line always lasts longer and/or tastes
better. Top-shelf chocolate is one example.
- On
the other hand, let's be brave and continue to invest in
solid companies while they're dirt-cheap. Although I don't
trust history and statistics at the moment, the stock market
has always proven to be the best return on investment. Call
me na?ve, but here's something in me that still believes
this information.
We're
now at the fourth step in the six-step problem solving process.
This is where we select the best ideas and prepare ourselves
to implement them. Shoot, I'm going to go for all of them.
I'll have maximum diversity and the biggest bang for my limited
bucks.
The next
step, implementation of the best ideas, is easy. Choosing
all of them is a lot of activity for one person, but this
is a good thing - if I stay occupied, I won't have time for
nightmares. I'd rather fall exhausted into bed than toss and
turn, sleepless, with visions of bear claws slashing my investments
to shreds.
The last
step of the creative problem solving process is evaluation.
This is where we step back and wait to see if our solutions
work. Since it takes time to see realistic profit from any
form of investment?well?it seems to me we didn't have a problem
in the first place. No matter how hungry the bears get, we
just need to remain diversified and patient.
"Tell
me again how you would keep the bears away, Cora."
"WHAT
bears, mom? Are you a few chips short of a computer, or what?
Let's go do something."
I grabbed
a tourniquet and a handful of chocolates as we headed out
the door, just in case.
Until Next Week,
Linda Goin
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